Pipeline Value

Total pipeline value with each deal multiplied by its stage-based close probability — the canonical probabilistic forecast number. More forecasting-useful than raw pipeline value because it accounts for the conversion-likelihood mix across stages (early-stage deals weighted ~10–25%, mid-stage ~40–60%, late-stage ~70–90%). Common pitfall: using globally-flat probabilities (e.g. always 50%) instead of stage-specific calibrated ones — a reliable weighted forecast requires the stage probabilities to be back-tested against actual close rates from prior periods.

Total number of active opportunities in the pipeline (open stages only — excludes closed-won and closed-lost). The volume side of pipeline coverage; paired with pipeline_value gives the average deal size and the deal-count vs deal-size ratio that characterizes the motion shape. Common pitfall: counting non-bona-fide opportunities (orphaned trials, demo requests that never converted to a real evaluation) inflates the number — apply a stage-floor cutoff (e.g. SQL or higher) so the count reflects committed evaluation activity.

Mean dollar value across active pipeline opportunities (Pipeline Value / Pipeline Deal Count). Distinct from sales.avg_contract_value (ACV) which measures closed-won deals — average_deal_size is forward-looking pipeline-shape, ACV is realized output. Common pitfall: a few oversized deals materially skew the average — always inspect median_deal_size alongside; a large gap between average and median signals a few mega-deals that drive most of the projected number, which concentrates pipeline risk.

Percentage of closed opportunities that resulted in closed-won (vs closed-lost) during the period. The single best read on bottom-of-funnel execution and the most direct input to pipeline-coverage math (required coverage = 1 / win rate). Common pitfall: computing win rate without disqualifying "no decision" outcomes inflates losses and depresses the rate artificially; the SaaS norm is to either bucket no-decisions separately or track a two-rate view (raw win rate vs ICP-fit win rate excluding no-decisions). Stage-segment cuts (SMB vs Enterprise) usually differ 2×–4× and should be reported separately when volume permits.

The team's expected closed-won dollars for the current quarter — usually a sales-leader judgment call informed by weighted forecast but adjusted for deal-by-deal commit confidence. Distinct from weighted_forecast (which is mechanical, stage × probability). Boards read both: a quarterly_forecast materially below weighted_forecast means the team has explicit negative judgment on specific big deals; above it means they're calling deals stronger than the stage probabilities suggest. Common pitfall: anchoring the call to plan rather than reality — boards quickly learn to discount "we will hit plan" forecasts and reward calibrated commit-vs-actual track records.

Container handle for the per-stage pipeline metrics grid — for each pipeline stage (qualification, discovery, evaluation, proposal, negotiation, closing) tracks dealCount, totalValue, closingProbability, winRateFromStage, and avgTimeToClose. The most diagnostic surface in the pipeline view: where deals are bunching, which stage is the bottleneck, where conversion math is breaking. Rendered via the StageMetricsGrid widget seeded from PipelineStageValues. Common pitfall: trusting unchanged stage probabilities even as the deal mix shifts — re-calibrate the per-stage close rates quarterly against actuals or the weighted forecast drifts unreliably.