Pipeline Quarterly Forecasts

Sum of the dollar value of all active deals currently in the sales pipeline — unweighted (raw deal-value sum, not probability-weighted). Boards read this as the top-of-funnel sufficiency check: if pipeline coverage (pipeline value / forecast) drops below the historic conversion-rate-implied threshold, the forecast is at risk. Common pitfall: confusing pipeline value with weighted forecast — the unweighted number always exceeds the weighted, often by 3–5× depending on the stage mix. Always report both and the implied conversion ratio.

Total pipeline value with each deal multiplied by its stage-based close probability — the canonical probabilistic forecast number. More forecasting-useful than raw pipeline value because it accounts for the conversion-likelihood mix across stages (early-stage deals weighted ~10–25%, mid-stage ~40–60%, late-stage ~70–90%). Common pitfall: using globally-flat probabilities (e.g. always 50%) instead of stage-specific calibrated ones — a reliable weighted forecast requires the stage probabilities to be back-tested against actual close rates from prior periods.

The team's expected closed-won dollars for the current quarter — usually a sales-leader judgment call informed by weighted forecast but adjusted for deal-by-deal commit confidence. Distinct from weighted_forecast (which is mechanical, stage × probability). Boards read both: a quarterly_forecast materially below weighted_forecast means the team has explicit negative judgment on specific big deals; above it means they're calling deals stronger than the stage probabilities suggest. Common pitfall: anchoring the call to plan rather than reality — boards quickly learn to discount "we will hit plan" forecasts and reward calibrated commit-vs-actual track records.

Total number of active opportunities in the pipeline (open stages only — excludes closed-won and closed-lost). The volume side of pipeline coverage; paired with pipeline_value gives the average deal size and the deal-count vs deal-size ratio that characterizes the motion shape. Common pitfall: counting non-bona-fide opportunities (orphaned trials, demo requests that never converted to a real evaluation) inflates the number — apply a stage-floor cutoff (e.g. SQL or higher) so the count reflects committed evaluation activity.

Total dollar value of new opportunities entering the pipeline during the period — the top-of-funnel inflow line in the pipeline flow. The single best read on the marketing-and-SDR engine's output. Common pitfall: counting inflated, un-qualified opportunities (e.g. every demo request) overstates the engine's output; restrict to opportunities that pass a defined qualification stage (typically SQL or higher) before counting. Boards expect this number to track forward quota — a quarter's top-of-funnel should be ~1× the same quarter's quota for a normal sales-cycle business.